Sunday, April 19, 2009

Selling Grain based on a Roach Ag Marketing Plan





In early 2008 I started watching IPTV Market to Market. Around June/July 2008 John Roach appeared on Market to Market and I clearly remember him saying that people will regret not selling grain at these prices. People will look back and say...what was I thinking? Why didn't I sell more? At the time corn was about $7.90/bushel and beans were $16.00/bushel. Then the financial crisis hit and world demand for grains plummeted. In October 2008 I signed up for Roach Ag's marketing plan and have really enjoyed it ever since. Their premise is selling grain on about four differnt sell signals during the March to June each year. You sell 25% of your grain on each sell signal. Sell 25% cash grain you plan on not storing during each sell signal and buy 25% puts on each sell signal. By the time the end of June comes around you'll have 100% of your crop marketed either with puts or cash sales. This year we had a strong and extended sell signal that I started turning on 2009 bean sales, because historically the prices were a lot higher then normal. Here is a screen shot of my grain sales and put options.

In addition, Roach Ag currently has a 10 day sell signal in beans, and here is a brief snapshot of what that looks like. Its my believe that we may have hit the 2009 high in beans on April 16th. We'll see.





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